By embracing the Hobby Lobby decision (Republican politicians could have carefully distanced themselves from the opinions of their Supreme Court allies - but they didn’t), the GOP has lost the women’s vote for a generation. Just as their other assorted recent policy stances have lost African Americans, Latinos, Asians, and anyone younger than 30, and almost anyone who’s not an evangelical Protestant or old-school Catholic.
But there are a lot of red-state seats in play in the Senate this year and Democrats are still (inexplicably) skittish about a 50-state strategy, so who knows. Anyway, to the predictions. In all cases these are the median predictions (useful term) across seven sets of predictions from this Wikipedia article. Unlike Wikipedia, I include the NYT and 538.com selections along with the other five in deriving the median.
Safe D: DE, IL, MA, NJ, NM, RI, HI
Likely D: MN, VA, NH, OR
Leans D: IA, MI, CO
Toss-up: AK (D), LA (D), NC (D), AR (D)
Leans R: MT (D), GA, KY
Likely R: SD (D), WV (D)
Safe R: AL, ID, ME, NE, OK (X2), SC (X2), TN, TX, WY, KS, MS
Relative to my last update in March (when there were only six predictors so mixed categories were possible), HI has moved from Safe/Likely D to Safe D; OR has moved from Safe/Likely D to Likely D; AR has moved from Tossup/Leans R to Tossup; GA has moved from Leans/Likely R to Leans R; and WV has moved from Leans R to Likely R.
In other words, remarkable stability, with the only full category move being by WV, whose citizens apparently feel that a Republican Senate will reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide enough to make large-scale coal burning economically viable once more. AR is back as a full tossup, which is good news for Democrats.
Assuming all seats go the way they are safe, leaning or likely, and assuming both Independents continue to caucus with Democrats, Republicans will have to win three of the four tossup seats in order to take the Senate.
"Religious freedom" is NOT the "freedom to control other people." This is a sick way of thinking.— Charles Johnson (@Green_Footballs)June 30, 2014
Can we get past the constitutional niceties and recognise that this is what’s really at issue here?
— Ed, Gin and Tacos (http://www.ginandtacos.com/2014/06/29/abundance-of-caution/)
— Gail Collins, NY Times (http://nyti.ms/1moaK2H)
— Shelby County v. Holder (2013) (Ginsburg, J., dissenting). (via notoriousrbg)
Happy first birthday to notoriousRBG the blog! Lest we forget the bad decisions along with the good, here’s the zinger that started it all.(via notoriousrbg)
The center of the population of the United States has been moving steadily west and south since 1790. This video shows the progression until 2010:
You can step through the animation yourself on the US Census Bureau site. It’s interesting to see how even the changes are…there was one big jump from 1850 to 1860 and a slow down in westward migration from 1890 to 1940, but other than that, it shifted west about 40-50 miles each decade.